上海市就业变动的实证分析——基于VAR模型

文章运用协整检验模型、VAR模型、脉冲响应分析等实证方法对上海市就业弹性系数与经济增长、产业结构变动、生产要素投入之间的关系进行检验。结果显示,经济增长、第二产业及第三产业的发展使就业弹性系数上升,促进了上海市就业增加。近年来经济增长及第二产业的发展逐渐进入了稳态,对促进就业的效应出现了边际递减,资本投入的增加对劳动力产生替代,影响了就业的稳定性;长期趋势来看,第三产业的就业吸纳能力强于二产业,产业结构变动的就业创造效应会增强。

An Empirical Analysis on Change of Employment in Shanghai --Based on VAR Model

Using Co-integration test, VAR model and impulse response analysis, the paper tests empirically the relationship between employment elasticity and economic growth, change of industrial structure, input of production factors in Shanghai. The results show that economic growth and development of the secondary and tertiary industries increase employment elasticity and promote employment in Shanghai. In recent years, economic growth and development of the secondary industry gradually reach a steady state, as a result, their effects on increase of employment appear marginal decrease. The increase of capital in- put has a substitution effect on labor input and affects the stability of employment. In a long-term, the employment absorption capacity of the tertiary industry becomes stronger than that of the secondary industry. The employment creation effect caused by the change of industrial structure will be enhanced.