数字贸易、产业结构升级与出口技术复杂度——基于结构方程模型的多重中介效应

提升出口技术复杂度能显著提升中国创新能力,而发展数字贸易是促进中国出口技术复杂度提升的重要途径。研究数字贸易的影响因素以及数字贸易通过哪些途径对中国出口技术复杂度产生影响,是理顺数字贸易与出口技术复杂度之间关系的关键任务。利用中国30个省(区、市)的数据,使用结构方程模型和中介效应检验方法,分析了数字贸易综合竞争力对中国出口技术复杂度的影响,结果发现:信息化水平、政府科技支出占比、进出口贸易、劳动生产率通过数字贸易对出口技术复杂度产生显著的间接效应,但政府科技支出对中国数字贸易综合竞争力的影响最小;数字贸易通过人力资本对出口技术复杂度产生显著的间接效应,R&D强度在数字贸易与出口技术复杂度之间起中介作用;数字贸易通过R&D强度对中国产业结构升级产生显著的间接效应,其对产业结构的作用能通过人力资本、R&D强度进行传导。因此,要加快推动数字贸易高质量发展,大力提升信息化水平,不断提升政府科技支出对数字贸易综合竞争力的促进作用。

The Relationship between Digital Trade,Upgrading of Industrial Structure and Export Technical Complexity:Based on Multiple Mediating Effects of Structural Equation Model

Increasing the complexity of export technology can significantly improve China's innovation ability.Development of digital trade is an important way to promote China's export technology complexity.In order to straighten out the relationship between digital trade and export technology complexity,it is necessary to study the influencing factors of digital trade and the ways through which digital trade affects China's export technology complexity.Based on the data of 30 provinces,this paper analyzes the impact of digital trade comprehensive competitiveness on China's export technology complexity by using structural equation model and intermediary effect test method.Informatization level,government expenditure on science and technology,import and export trade and labor productivity have significant indirect effects on export technology complexity through digital trade,but government expenditure on science and technology has the least impact on the comprehensive competitiveness of China's digital trade.Not only does digital trade have a significant indirect effect on export technology complexity through human capital,but also R&D intensity plays a mediating role between digital trade and export technology complexity.Not only does digital trade have a significant indirect effect on the upgrading of China's industrial structure through R&D intensity,but also the effect of digital trade on industrial structure can be transmitted through human capital and R&D intensity.Therefore,we should vigorously improve the comprehensive competitiveness of digital trade,constantly enhance the role of government science and technology expenditure in promoting the comprehensive competitiveness of digital trade,and vigorously enhance the level of informatization.