The Sun Also Rises: Productivity Convergence Between Japan and the USA

The growth process for a technological leader is different from that of a follower. While followers can grow through imitation and capital deepening, a leader must undertake original research. This suggests that as the gap between the leader and the follower narrows, the follower must undertake more genuinely innovative R&D and possibly face a slower overall growth rate. The results of a dynamic panel equilibrium-correction model of productivity growth suggest that the productivity gap with the USA had a strong effect on the growth of Japanese manufacturing, and that changes in R&D intensity also made a significant contribution. Moreover, the effect of the productivity gap was significantly higher in industries that had higher R&D intensities, higher levels of human capital, and were more open to exports. This paper is based upon Chapter 5 of my D.Phil. thesis at the University of Oxford. It was partly written while I was a Visiting Scholar at the Foundation for Advanced Information & Research, Tokyo, and was supported by a Sanwa Bank Foundation Research Fellowship and ESRC grants R000234954 and R000237500.