影响中国国际资本流动的因素分析

本文结合中国资本流动的特点,加入证券市场价格及房地产价格水平两个变量实证分析了1982～2004年对我国国际资本流动的影响。结果表明对中国资本流动影响最显著的因素依次为利率、汇率、房地产价格指数和证券市场价格。

Analyzing factors influencing China international capital flow

this article joined two variables, which are the stock market price and the real estate price level has analyzed 1982 -2004 Chinese capital flow data according to the characteristic of Chinese capital flow. The result indicates Chinese capital flow was most remarkably affected by factors that in turn are the interest rate, the exchange rate, the real estate price index and the stock market price, Exchange rate change influences more than the exchange rate absolute level on the international capital flow; Moreover with the Chinese domestic economy growing, the real estate price level influences remarkably the international capital flow more and more; The stock market price level is not extremely remarkable to the international capital flow influence, because of the control of Chinese capital account.