新型城镇化与城市低碳发展时空耦合关系及驱动力因素分析

高质量发展背景下,追求城市低碳发展是新型城镇化建设的目标之一。针对全国30个省份,构建了综合评价指标体系,采用耦合协调度模型分析新型城镇化与城市低碳发展时空耦合关系,借助空间计量模型分析影响两者关系的驱动力因素。结果显示:(1)新型城镇化与城市低碳发展综合评价指数均呈稳步上升、持续下滑、波动上升、波动下滑四种特征,我国东、中、西部地区均有分布。(2)时间序列看,耦合协调度除个别地区呈波动上升外,其余均呈稳步上升态势;空间格局看,不同年份各地区呈不同耦合协调类型;2016年耦合协调度高于全国平均值的省份主要集中于中西部地区,已经发生转变。(3)空间计量结果看,耦合协调度具有较强的正向溢出效应,且平均气温、相对湿度、城镇化率、地区产业结构、工业绿色转型水平、PM₁₀浓度及环境规制对耦合协调度呈显著影响。

Analysis on the Spatio temporal Coupling Relationship and Driving Forces of New Urbanization and Urban Low Carbon Development

In the context of high-quality development,the pursuit of urban low-carbon development is one of the goals of new urbanization.Aiming at 30 provinces,constructed a comprehensive evaluation index system,the coupling coordination model is used to analyze the spatiotemporal coupling relationship between new urbanization and urban low-carbon development,and the spatial coordination model is used to analyze the coupling and coordination between the two Drivers of relationships.The results show that:(1)The comprehensive evaluation index of new urbanization and urban low-carbon development shows four characteristics of steady rise,continuous decline,rising volatility,and falling volatility,which are distributed in the eastern,central and western regions of China.(2)In terms of time series,except for individual regions,the coupling coordination degree is fluctuation rising,and the rest of the regions are steadily increasing;in terms of spatial pattern,different regions have different coupling coordination types in different years;in 2016,the coupling coordination degree is higher than the national average in provinces.It is mainly concentrated in the central and western regions and has undergone transformation.(3)From the spatial measurement results,the coupling coordination degree has a strong positive spillover effect,and the average temperature,relative humidity,urbanization rate,regional industrial structure,industrial green transformation level,PM₁₀Concentration and environmental regulations have a significant impact on the coupling coordination.