调控上网电价对稳定市场价格的政策效果实证研究

基于VAR模型和中介效应模型等定量分析手段,研究了我国上网电价波动对市场价格波动的影响效应,探索调控上网电价对稳定市场价格是否具有积极的政策效果。结果表明,上网电价的调整在滞后一期会对CPI和PPI产生负向冲击,从而抑制市场价格上涨,而随着滞后期不断增加,影响作用趋于减弱;同时,在上网电价波动影响市场价格波动的过程中,存在CPI和PPI之间相互中介效应,即存在上网电价→PPI→CPI、上网电价→CPI→PPI的影响途径。总体来看,我国调控上网电价,在一定程度上起到了稳定国内市场价格的积极作用。

An empirical study on the policy effect of regulating and controlling feed-in tariff on stabilizing market prices

Based on the VAR model and intermediary effect model,this paper studies the effect of the feed-in tariff fluctuation on the market price fluctuation in China,and explores whether regulating feed-in tariff has a positive policy effect on stabilizing market prices.The results show that the adjustment of feed-in tariff has a negative impact on CPI and PPI in the early stage of lag,which restrains the rise in market prices.And the effect tends to weaken with the increase of lag period.At the same time,in the process of the feed-in tariff fluctuation influencing the market price fluctuation,there are mutual intermediary effects between CPI and PPI,that is,there are influence ways of feed-in tariff→PPI→CPI,feed-in tariff→CPI→PPI.Overall,China’s regulation and control of feed-in tariff has played a positive role in stabilizing the domestic market prices to a certain extent.