新常态下中国经济增长潜力研究

中国过去30多年的高速增长属于斯密式增长，未来这种不可持续的增长方式会逐渐被熊彼特式或奥尔森式替代。中国在新常态背景下，经济增长速度放缓。根据中国经济增长在1978～2013年间呈现的周期性规律，本轮经济低迷期会持续到2019年左右。本文利用CD函数和Lucas人力资本增长模型实证分析出1978～2013年固定资本存量和人力资本存量对中国经济增长的贡献率分别为0.68和0.32，在此基础上计算出各年扣除人力资本和固定资本存量的全要素生产率增长率。结合发达国家经济新常态的特征，预测出“十三五”期间，中国经济增长速度在5.48%～9.12%之间。

Research on China's Economic Growth Potential under the New Normal

Over the past 30 years ,China's rapid economic growth belongs to Smith type ,which is a kind of unsustainable growth pat-tern .It will be gradually replaced by Schumpeter type or Olsen type .Economic growth slower under the background of the new normal .Ac-cording to the periodic law of China's economic growth from 1978 to 2013 ,the economic downturn will continue to around 2019 .Using Cobb-Douglas Production Function and Lucas' Human Capital Growth Model ,this paper makes an empirical analysis ranging from 1978 to 2013 . The contribution rate of fixed capital stock and human capital stock are 0.68 and 0.32 respectively .We calculate the annual growth of total factor productivity which is deducted human capital and fixed capital stock .Combining with characteristics of the economic new normal in developed countries ,it also predictes China's economic growth rate is between 5.48% and 9.12% over the period of the 13th Five Year .