基于灰色关联度的能耗强度影响因素分析

日益严重的能源短缺和环境污染对降低能耗强度提出了更高的要求。本文分析了产业结构、城镇化水平、能源消费结构、能源转化效率、能源价格和对外贸易结构对能耗强度的作用机理，并进行了因果关系检验。建立了基于灰色关联度的能耗强度影响因素模型，得出在这6个因素中，与能耗强度的关联度由大到小分别是能源价格、产业结构、能源消费结构、能源转化效率、城镇化水平和对外贸易结构。根据模型结果，提出了合理制定能源价格，加快产业结构转变，改变能源结构，提高能源转化效率和城镇化水平的建议。

An Analysis of Influential Factors of Energy Efficiency Based on Grey Relational Grade

〔Abstract〕 Due to the increasingly serious energy shortages and environmental pollution , there are higher demands for reducing ener-gy intensity . At first , the paper is committed to presenting an analysis of the function mechanism which the industrial structure , the level of urbanization , the structure of energy consumption , the energy conversion efficiency , energy prices and the structure of foreign trade have on energy intensity and using econometric software Eviews to test the causal relationship at the same time . Both mechanism analysis and test results show that the industrial structure , the level of urbanization , the structure of energy consumption , the energy conversion ef-ficiency , energy prices and the structure of foreign trade are influential factors of energy intensity . And then the author establishes a model for influential factors of energy intensity based on grey relational grade , arriving at the conclusion that among the six factors , according to the degree of correlation with energy intensity , from high to low are successively energy prices , industrial structure , energy consumption structure , energy conversion efficiency , urbanization level and foreign trade structure . On the basis of the results of the model , this paper puts forward a proposal of setting reasonable prices of energy and accelerating the transformation of industrial structure .