对我国外汇储备超适度规模的实证分析——基于改进的阿格沃尔模型

本文运用改进的阿格沃尔模型,选取1994-2010年数据对我国外汇储备适度规模进行了实证分析,结果表明:目前我国外汇储备规模已经明显过量。Johansen协整检验和Granger因果关系检验显示:进出口额、GDP、外商直接投资与外汇储备规模之间存在长期协整关系,对外汇储备规模能够产生长期的影响;但外债余额尤其是短期外债余额和广义货币供应量也能在短期内对外汇储备规模产生影响。本文认为,改善贸易结构并扩大内需,加大进口力度并支持对外投资,重视GDP的质量并促进经济理性增长,严格外企准入制度并转变外企引进结构,增强人民币汇率弹性等政策措施是抑制我国外汇储备过度增长的有效途径。

An Empirical Analysis of the Appropriate Level of Foreign Exchange:Reserve for Our Country:Based On Improved Agarual Model

Using improved Agarual Model and the data from 1994 to 2010,our paper provide an empirical analysis on the appropriate level of foreign exchange reserve for our country.The results show that our country currently holds excessive foreign exchange reserve.The Johansen cointegration test and Granger causality test show that,the import and export,GDP,and FDI have cointegration relationship with,and therefore have long term effect on the level of foreign exchange reserve.In addition,the foreign loan,especially t...