考虑技术进步和结构变化的宏观能源回弹效应估算

考虑到技术进步和结构变化引致的宏观能源回弹效应影响广泛但相关研究不足，本文使用多部门增长核算法和LMDI指数分解法，分别对技术进步和结构变化引致的能源回弹效应构建估算模型，进而估算我国2005年—2019年含6个细分部门的整体经济和含18个细分部门的工业能源回弹效应。研究显示，在整体经济和工业层面，技术进步引致的能源回弹效应在研究期内一直存在，结构变化引致的能源回弹效应仅在部分年份存在。近年来，工业结构变化呈现如下趋势：即仅促进了经济增长却没有促进能耗强度下降。本文的研究可为进一步完善能源效率政策提供重要参考。

ESTIMATION OF MACRO ENERGY REBOUND EFFECT CONSIDERING TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS AND STRUCTURAL CHANGE

The macro energy rebound effect considering technological progress and structural change has a wide impact but limited researchThis paper builds energy rebound effect calculation model caused respectively by technological progress and structural change based on multi sectoral growth accounting method and LMDI index decomposition method respectivelyThe energy rebound effect of China's overall economy with 6 subsectors and the industry with 18 subsectors from 2005 to 2019 is calculated respectivelyThe results show that the energy rebound effect caused by technological progress existed in all years of the study period，while the energy rebound effect caused by structural change only existed in limited yearsIn recent years，the change of industrial structure only promoted economic growth but did not promote the decline of energy intensityThis study can provide important reference for further improvement of energy efficiency policies