| 北京市人口老龄化对经济的影响研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 张士运,杨茜淋.北京市人口老龄化对经济的影响研究[J].科学决策,2015(6):65-75. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张士运 杨茜淋 |
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| 基金项目： | 北京市科学技术研究院——北京市财政资金项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 论文分析了人口结构影响消费、储蓄及劳动力供给的机制，对2015—2040年北京市人口老龄化发展趋势进行了预测，首次建立了北京市人口老龄化动态CGE模型，并利用该模型模拟了人口老龄化对北京市经济的影响，结果显示：人口老龄化问题将在未来严重制约北京市经济增长，北京市未来经济增长的源泉主要靠技术进步。
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| 关 键 词： | 人口老龄化 人口结构 经济增长 动态CGE模型 |
Study on the Influence of Aged Tendency of Population on Economy Evidence from Beijing |
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| ZHANG Shi-yun and YANG Qian-lin.Study on the Influence of Aged Tendency of Population on Economy Evidence from Beijing[J].Scientific Decision-Making,2015(6):65-75. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Shi-yun and YANG Qian-lin |
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| Abstract: | This paper analyzed the mechanism of the influence of population structure on consumption, savings and labor supply. At the same time the trend of population aging in Beijing during 2015-2040 was predicted. Furthermore, the dynamic CGE model of population aging in Beijing was firstly established. Finally, by using this model, the influence of population aging on the economy of Beijing was simulated. The results indicated that the problem of population aging would seriously restrict the economic growth of Beijing in the future, and the source of economic growth in Beijing will depend mainly on technological innovation. |
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