地价与房价的因果关系——全国和城市层面的计量研究

研究目的:系统地探讨地价与房价的因果关系。研究方法:计量经济学方法和比较法。研究结果:从全国层面而言,作为房价与地价一般性代表的房屋销售价格指数和土地交易价格指数之间互为长期和短期Granger因,但房价的变动对地价变动的影响力更大些。而对23个大中城市的计量研究表明,各城市地价与房价的关系不是唯一而确定的,房价的增长更多地受自身因素而不是地价的影响。研究结论:地价与房价的关系是复杂且因地而异的,以一个案例的分析结果来断定两者的关系是有失偏颇的。

Causality between Land Price and Housing Price: A Quantitative Study on Country Level and City Level

The purpose of the paper is to explore the relationship between land price and housing price in the round.Methods of econometrics analysis and comparison method were employed.The national data shows that there are long-term and short-term causality between the land trading price index and housing sale price index.Furthermore,the change of the housing price has more significant effect on land price than the reverse.The city level data which includes twenty-three large and medium cities shows that there are no fixed relationships between housing price and land price.The housing price is much more affected by the local real estate market itself but not by the land price.It can be concluded that the relationship between the land price and housing price is very complicated.Therefore,it may be arbitrary to deem the relationship between the land price and housing price only by one case.