不完全资本市场与国际贸易赤字

本文通过带有风险资产的两期一般均衡模型研究了不完全资本市场和一国国际贸易之间的相关性。研究表明,当市场是完全的或者没有风险资产时,一国的国际贸易是平衡的,但是当资本市场不完全时会出现贸易不平衡。如果是国家间的不完全市场,由于一些国家的收入对风险资产的回报具有更强的相关性,使得国家间的贸易出现不平衡;如果资产在一个国家内是不完全的,则由于完全市场国家具有更强的国内分散收入变化风险的能力,会减少预防性储蓄,导致更大的贸易赤字。一些国际数据基本支持本文的研究结论。

Incomplete Financial Market and International Trade Deficit

Using two-period general equilibrium model with risk asset, the paper show that incomplete markets lead to trade imbalances. When markets are complete or no risk asset, countries engage in balanced trade. But when some of those markets are absent, trade imbalances emerge. Market incompleteness across countries causes trade imbalances because national income in some countries is more correlation with risky asset payoffs than in others. Market incompleteness within countries causes trade imbalances because superior risk-sharing in one country leads to a lower precautionary demand for saving. Some international trade and financial structure data support our research results in certain extent.