中国未来生育政策的选择

近年来社会上对是否应该放开中国的计划生育政策有很多争论。争论的起因是由于一些调查数据反映的和某些学者估计出的我国目前生育率非常低;鉴于低生育率已经给比较发达的国家带来了很多问题,所以有人呼吁中国的生育政策应该放开。通过对放开生育政策和不放开生育政策两种情形可能导致的人口学后果进行估计,结合国外的经验和教训,从低生育率的长期后果来分析如何合理地选择生育政策。为了避免人口达到零增长后的快速负增长、快速老龄化和人口规模的迅速减少,国家应该密切关注人们生育意愿的变化,必须在适当的时候放开生育政策,使生育水平保持在2.0左右,从而尽可能地避免长期的、过快的负增长给国家和社会带来更为严重的人口与社会经济问题。

The Choices of Chinese Fertility Policy in the Future

There are a lot of debate on if the family planning policy should be loosen in the public. The causes of the debate are due to the very low fertility shown through national surveys and professional estimations. As it has shown that low fertility has brought some problems for more developed countries in the world, one proposes that the fertility in China should not be controlled. This paper is to estimate the demographic consequences with two scenarios, keep controlling and not being controlled, integrating the experiences of other countries, and to analyze how to plausibly choose fertility policy based on the long term consequences of the low fertility. The conclusion is that the government should pay close attention to the birth desire of Chinese people, appropriately and gradually open the current fertility policy, keep the fertility level in two children per family, in case that there appear fast and long term negative population increase, fast aging, and fast decrease of the total number of the population after zero increase so as to bring more serious population and socioeconomic problems to the nation and society.