On the evolution of technological specialization patterns in emerging countries: comparing Asia and Latin America

This paper explores the role of technological opportunity and cumulativeness in the evolution of technological specialization patterns (TSP) in catching-up processes. Concretely, I assume that opportunity induces mobility while cumulativeness leads to diversification and stability. The empirical analysis uses patent data indicators for nine Asian and Latin American countries between 1978 and 2012. The paper shows that, during economic liberalization (although with different timings), emerging countries caught up and redefined the path of technological accumulation for Asian and Latin American countries. With the exception of Hong Kong, all the countries increased their technology share, but they ran in different directions. Asian countries made greater relative efforts in dynamic technologies, while Latin American countries focused on stagnant technologies. In this sense, Asian countries achieved a more successful performance, building new technological bases and taking a technological leap in some of the more dynamic technologies. Meanwhile, Latin American countries left their technological bases unchanged. The paper also shows that, at the beginning of the catching-up cycle, the TSPs were turbulent. Afterwards, cumulativeness in the technological choice induced the diversification and stabilization of the TSPs.