人民币汇率制度:现状、近期选择与改革操作

本文运用钉住一篮子货币汇率制的数学模型对人民币均衡汇率和汇率失调程度进行了实证研究,重点讨论了货币篮子的目标设定和权重选择等问题,模拟了1994～2004年钉住一篮子货币汇率制下的人民币均衡汇率.模型结果表明,1994年以来,人民币名义汇率在大部分时期偏离模拟均衡汇率轨迹,表现为人民币汇率的失调.其中,1997～1998年为人民币汇率高估时期,1999年往后的时期人民币汇率转为明显的低估,尤以2002年最为严重,而且低估程度有进一步扩大的趋势.本文给出的政策含义是,就近一阶段而言,人民币采用钉住一篮子货币汇率制是一种现实且合理的选择.

RMB Exchange Rate Regime:Current Situation, Choice in the Near Future and Reform

This paper employs basket-pegged exchange rat e regime model to empirically estimate the equilibrium exchange rate of RMB and th e exchange rate misalignment in China with data from 1994 to 2004. We focus on t he goal-setting and weight-choosing of currency basket. The results show that RMB nominal exchange rate has been misaligned for most of the sample period sinc e 1994, over-evaluated from 1997 to 1998, and under-evaluated since 1999 (part icular in 2002) with an increasing under-evaluation trend. The policy implicati on of the findings is that the basket-pegged exchange rate regime of RMB is a r ealistic and reasonable choice in the near time range.