金融自由化风险向金融危机转化的可能性分析

本文认为,发展中国家的金融自由化在提高金融机构效率和赢利的同时,会带来许多新的风险,而且在一定条件下有可能导致金融危机。金融自由化带来的乐观预期和大量国外私人资本的内流会使汇率高估,极易遭受投机的攻击。从带来风险到最终引发金融危机,主要有三个风险阶段,即违约风险阶段、到期不能偿还风险阶段和汇率风险阶段。当金融自由化(如利率自由化、金融业务与机构准入自由化和资本账户自由化)带来的新的风险累积到风险临界值时,在受到国内突发事件、国际金融市场波动和投机资本攻击的情况下,金融自由化风险便会向金融危机演变。

The Probability Analysis of the Evolution from Financial Liberalization Risk to Financial Crisis

The financial liberalization in developing countries has improved the efficiency and profit-making of financial institutions.But,at the same time,there are some new kinds of risks arose,and these risks may lead to financial crisis under some certain conditions.The optimistic expectation and the inflow of foreign private capital brought by financial liberalization will lead to overvaluation of the exchange rate which will be the target of speculation attack.The evolution process from the emergence of the risks to the explosion of financial crisis passes through three stages.When new risks brought by financial liberalization accumulate to the critical value,and accompanied with some unexpected domestic affairs,fluctuation in international financial market or the attack of hot money,these risks will evolve into financial crisis.