住宅投资、要素结构与配置效率——基于北京市各区县的实证研究

研究目的:估算各类资本存量、生产函数要素弹性系数和要素边际报酬率,实证研究住宅价格及其资本存量的内涵型和外延型资源配置机制,考察它们对要素配置效率和全要素生产率扭曲程度的影响。研究方法:理论模型法,面板校正标准误法(PCSE)。研究结果:(1)住宅开发主要通过投资而非价格产生影响,抵押担保效应、要素挤出效应和技术创新效应很显著,其他效应不显著;(2)住宅资本存量对要素配置效率和全要素生产率扭曲的影响也显著,而住宅价格的影响面和显著性都较低。研究结论:住宅资本存量比住宅价格的资源配置效应更强,都恶化了非住宅业资源配置扭曲度。因此,要盘活存量、优化增量和管好总量,完善住宅调控基础性制度安排,科学测度和控制住宅价格及增速。

Housing Investment, Factors Structure and Allocative Efficiency: An Empirical Study on the Counties in Beijing City

The purpose of this paper is to estimate capital stocks, factor efficiency and their impacts on the distortions of allocative efficiency as well as the total factor productivity. The methods of theoretical model and panel corrected standard errors (PCSE) are used. The results show that: 1)housing investment instead of the price has a significant impact on efficiency distortion, including mortgage effect, crowd-in/out effect and technology innovation; 2)housing investment has statistically significant impact on the distortions of allocative efficiency and the total factor productivity, although housing prices have less and insignificant impact. In conclusion, the stock of housing capital has a stronger allocative effect than housing prices and exacerbates the distortion of non-housing resources. Thus, policy makers need to make full use of housing stocks, optimize housing increment and regulate its total stock. Besides, it is necessary to improve basic institutional arrangement about housing market and to measure the housing prices scientifically.