持续出口企业创造了更多就业吗?

出口能够带来就业效应,这已成为一个共识;但以往研究只关注了出口与否对就业产生的不同影响,并没有讨论出口持续程度的差异造成的就业效应偏差.文章使用中国工业企业数据,首次考察了企业出口持续程度与企业就业人数的关系.研究发现:(1)企业出口持续时间的提高确实有助于创造更多的就业,且这种就业创造效应是动态的.(2)持续出口企业创造更多就业的机制在于,持续出口企业更有可能获得高额利润,具备更好的创造和维持岗位的能力,从而带来更大的就业规模.(3)2005年的汇率制度改革并没有显著改变持续出口企业创造更多就业的事实.因此,政府在鼓励出口时,应该更加重视帮助企业维持其持续出口能力,通过加大对出口企业产品研发和制造的资金与技术支持,从根本上提升出口企业的产品质量和经营管理能力.

Does Persistent Export Create More Jobs?

Summary: By the usage of the data of Chinese industrial enterprises,this paper first investigates the re-lationship between the degree of enterprise export persistence and the number of enterprises employed,com-bining the theoretical mechanism,the survival analysis,the panel static and dynamic regression and the differ-ence-in-difference method. Based on the searching-matching framework,the optimization process is extended to the exporter,and the impact path of the export continuity on employment is revealed,and the risk function of export enterprises' continuous export is estimated by the survival analysis method,and the real export length of the enterprise is accurately assessed. Based on the above work,we use the data of Chinese industrial enterprises to assess the marginal impact of export durations on employment and demonstrate the impact mechanism. The main conclusions of the study are as follows:First,when the duration of the enterprise export in-creases by 1%,the employment scale of employees will increase by nearly 2%?4%. Second,when the export duration of the current enterprise continues to increase,the total number of employees will increase signific-antly in the future,indicating that the conclusion of the continuous export enterprises to create more jobs is also established at the dynamic level. Third,the mechanism for continuous export enterprises to create more employment depends on the realization of high profit,that is,the reason why employees in the continuous ex-port enterprises have a higher employment scale is that the continuous export enterprises are more likely to gain high profits and thus have a better ability to create and maintain their jobs. Fourth,the reform of the ex-change rate system in 2005 did not reduce the ability of the continuous export enterprises to create employ-ment,indicating that the export of industrial enterprises above the scale may not be affected by the reform of the exchange rate system,that is,the competitiveness of most enterprises' export products should not only be the advantage of the price. The conclusions drawn from the article provide important inspiration for China's further opening-up and full employment in the future. Although many policies that the government encourages exports can sometimes play a direct or indirect role in supporting enterprises' ability to maintain exports,for example,long term ex-port tax rebates and subsidies,financing and tax incentives related to encouraging enterprises to "go out",dir-ect or indirect subsidies for the production of high and new technology products or export products in short-age,all of which encourage both export and export enterprises to maintain their export capacity. But in most cases,it is more difficult to maintain the long-term export capability of enterprises than to encourage enter-prises to export. More effective methods are that the government should provide financial and technological supports for the product development and manufacture of export enterprises,fundamentally improve product quality and management abilities of enterprises,so that they can always have the export ability and internation-al market competitiveness,as far as possible to maintain longer export life.