| 可持续发展视角下江苏能源需求情景预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 王迪,聂锐,张炎治.可持续发展视角下江苏能源需求情景预测[J].改革与战略,2009,25(8):53-56. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王迪 聂锐 张炎治 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国矿业大学管理学院,江苏,徐州,221116 |
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| 基金项目： | 教育部哲学社会科学研究后期资助项目，江苏省高校哲学社会科学研究，江苏省教育厅哲学社会科学项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 文章运用IPAT方程和指数分解的方法分析了江苏省2000—2007年的能源消耗及能源消费强度状况；根据江苏能源需求的历史发展趋势、小康社会指标以及发达国家能源利用状况分情景预测了江苏未来能源利用效率及能源需求总量。文章针对实现小康社会目标的各种情景，分析了经济结构对能源需求和能源强度的影响并提出政策建议。
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| 关 键 词： | 情景分析 可持续发展 能源强度 能源需求 |
Prediction of Jiangsu's Energy Demand form a Perspective of Sustainable Development Pattern |
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| Wang Di,Nie Rui,Zhang Yanzhi.Prediction of Jiangsu''s Energy Demand form a Perspective of Sustainable Development Pattern[J].Reformation & Strategy,2009,25(8):53-56. |
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| Authors: | Wang Di Nie Rui Zhang Yanzhi |
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| Institution: | School of Management;China University of Mining and Technology;Xuzhou;Jiangsu 221116 |
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| Abstract: | This paper utilized the IPAT equation and index decomposition to analyze the energy demand and energy intensity of Jiangsu from 2000 to 2007;According to historical trends of Jiangsu's energy demands,indexes of well-off society and the usage of energy consumption of developed countries,three scenes of energy demand were set,and intending energy demand and energy intensity of Jiangsu were forecasted;the impact of the perceived changes in the economic structure on energy requirements and energy intensity were... |
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| Keywords: | scenario analysis sustainable development energy intensity energy demand |
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