On graduation from fiscal procyclicality |
| |
Authors: | Jeffrey A Frankel Carlos A Vegh Guillermo Vuletin |
| |
Institution: | 1. Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA;2. University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA;3. Colby College, Waterville, ME, USA;4. NBER, Cambridge, MA, USA |
| |
Abstract: | In the past, industrial countries have tended to pursue countercyclical or, at worst, acyclical fiscal policy. In sharp contrast, emerging and developing countries have followed procyclical fiscal policy, thus exacerbating the underlying business cycle. We show that, over the last decade, about a third of the developing world has been able to escape the procyclicality trap and actually become countercyclical. We then focus on the role played by the quality of institutions, which appears to be a key determinant of a country’s ability to graduate. We show that, even after controlling for the endogeneity of institutions and other determinants of fiscal procyclicality, there is a causal link running from stronger institutions to less procyclical or more countercyclical fiscal policy. |
| |
Keywords: | E62 E32 E02 F41 |
本文献已被 ScienceDirect 等数据库收录! |
|