影响中国电子行业出口决定因素的经验分析

本文利用中国电子工业子行业面板数据实证分析1999—2002年期间该行业出口的决定因素,特别是外商直接投资(FDI)的作用。我们发现FDI尤其是来自港澳台的FDI和规模经济对出口有正向作用。我们同时发现国有资本份额与出口负向相关,而资本密集度、研发和人力资本并不是影响中国电子行业出口的重要因素,表明中国的电子企业大多仍处于国际产品分工链的低端。本文有两个原创性贡献:第一是区分不同国别(地区)FDI对中国电子产品出口影响的差异,并发现港澳台地区资本较西方国家资本对中国电子产品出口影响更大;第二是发现劳动力成本水平因素影响FDI对出口作用程度的大小。这些结果具有重要的政策涵义。

Determinants of Exports in Chinese Electronics Industry

Employing a panel data set for 1999—2002, this paper examines the determinants of exports in Chinese electronics industry, with a particular focus on the role of foreign direct investment (FDI). We find that FDI especially investments from Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan and economies of scale are positively related to exports. We also find that the share of state capital is negatively associated with exports, whereas capital intensity, R&D and human capital are not important, indicating that most Chinese electronics enterprises are still positioned at the low-end of product value chain in the international division of labour. The paper makes two original contributions. The first is the distinction of contribution made by FDI from different country groups and the establishment of evidence that FDI from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan plays a greater role in promoting exports than FDI from western countries. The second is the finding that the level of labour cost moderates the relationship between FDI and exports. These findings carry important policy implications.