P2P网络借贷市场信用风险识别

近年来,P2P网络借贷市场成为我国金融领域的重灾区,各类问题层出不穷,不仅损害了投资者利益,而且严重扰乱了我国的金融秩序,深入研究P2P网络借贷市场存在的问题具有重要现实意义。P2P网络借贷市场是信息不对称最为严重的市场之一,对借款人信用风险进行识别是P2P网络借贷的关键环节。根据信用风险定价理论,借贷利率应该充分反映违约风险,通过检验借贷利率与违约风险之间的关系可以验证借贷市场信用风险识别机制的有效性。基于“人人贷”平台公开的历史交易数据对P2P网络借贷市场的信用风险识别问题进行实证研究,结果表明:借贷利率能部分反映借款人的信用风险,但在相同的利率水平下,其他指标与违约风险也存在显著性关系,表明相同的利率未对应相同的信用风险,平台的信用风险识别机制部分有效。进一步研究表明,在缺乏成熟、易用的个人征信产品的情况下,无论借款人、P2P平台,还是投资者,对信用风险影响因素的判断与实际情况都存在一定的偏差,工作经验丰富的借款人付出了过高的借贷成本,平台在判断收入对信用风险的影响方面出现了偏差,投资者则忽视了借款人学历的价值。建议打破个人征信数据壁垒,丰富个人征信产品,保护居民信用数据安全,以保障借贷市场的持续发展。

Research on Credit Risk Identification of Peer-to-Peer Lending Market

In recent years,Peer-to-Peer lending market has become a serious disaster area in the financial field of our country,various kinds of problems emerge in endlessly,which not only damage the profit of investors,but also seriously disturb the financial order of our country.It is of great practical significance to us to deeply study the problems existing in Peer-to-Peer lending market.Peer-to-Peer lending market is one of the most serious market of information asymmetry.The key link of Peerto-Peer lending is to identify the credit risk of the borrower.According to the theory of credit risk pricing,the loan interest rate should fully reflect the default risk.The validity of the credit risk identification mechanism in the loan market can be verified by testing the relationship between the loan interest rate and the default risk.The open historical transaction data of Renrendai platform provides a data source for testing the credit risk identification mechanism of Peer-to-Peer lending market.The empirical research results show that:the lending interest rate can partly reflect the credit risk of the borrower;but at the same interest rate level,other indicators have a significant relationship with the default risk,indicating that the same interest rate does not correspond to the same credit risk.Further research shows that,with the lack of personal credit report,there is the deviation between the judgment of borrower,P2P platform and the investor on credit risk influencing factors and the actual situation.The borrower with rich working experience has paid too much borrowing cost;there is the deviation between the judgment of platform on the impact of income on credit risk and the reality;and the investor ignores the value of the borrower's education experience.So we should further eliminate data barriers in personal credit report,enrich personal credit products,and protect the safety of residents'credit data to ensure the sustainable development of loan market.