Macroeconomic Consequences of the EMU

European Monetary Union was sold to the German public on the claim that the common currency would make the European economy stronger and that this would yield significant welfare gains. Such claims are commonly based on three propositions. (1) The common currency will be a strong international currency and the real appreciation of the euro against other currencies will make the EMU citizens richer. (2) The common currency will change labor market relations and increase labor market flexibility, and this will reduce the high rate of structural unemployment in Europe. (3) The common currency will create competition among the governments in the dimension of regulatory and tax policies and induce governments to undertake structural reforms which are long overdue, and this will set the EMU economy on a higher growth path.In this paper we discuss these three claims. We agree with the basic ideas of each of them. But the suggested result of a stronger EMU economy remains questionable. The euro may lead to more or to less labor market inflexibility, and competition among governments in the EMU has a high and a low-regulation equilibrium. Where the euro takes the European economy depends largely on the political willingness to engage in reforms.