Monetary Policy and Capital Inflow*

Capital inflow has been depicted in the model developed by Pentti Kouri and Michael Porter as being determined exclusively by monetary forces, with GNP entering the equation through its impact on the demand for money. If this is correct, disaggregation of GNP should have little effect on the estimates of response parameters in the model. It is found that replacing GNP by investment and non-investment spending has a significant effect on the estimates, suggesting that capital inflows have direct purposes which are not well represented in a purely monetary model. An attempt is made to construct a money policy equation as the second part of a simultaneous system depicting the interplay of monetary policy and capital inflow. In spite of claims to the contrary, it is found that simultaneous estimation gives results which differ considerably from those of single-equation methods.