中原城市群产业、人口与土地非农化时空耦合协调性研究

［目的］研判中原城市群城市化发展中产业非农化、人口与城市化土地非农化等多要素之间的耦合协调性与时空演变特征,为中原城市群健康发展提供参考和依据。［方法］文章利用耦合协调度模型、ArcGis空间分析,基于2006—2016年研究时段,评价中原城市群产业、人口与土地非农化的沟壑协调性。［结果］（1）从时序特征看,中原城市群人口、产业和土地非农化之间的耦合协调度呈总体下降、过程波动的变化趋势,其中2006年、2011年和2016年的耦合协调度分别为057、053和055,处于中度耦合协调阶段。（2）从空间特征看,中原城市群产业、人口与土地非农化的耦合协调性空间格局经历了由环形到“T”字型再逐渐形成“三点”式的分布特征,空间差异明显。［结论］中原城市群健康发展应强化城市协同发展,增强引领示范作用; 增强自主发展能力,缩小区域发展差距; 优化产业空间格局,推动城市全面发展是未来城市化协调发展的启示。

SPACE TIME COUPLING COORDINATION OF INDUSTRY, POPULATION AND LAND DEAGRICULTURALIZATION IN ZHONGYUAN CITY GROUP

With the rapid development of urbanization, the complex system of industry, population and land is increasingly important for regional development. This research is intended to study the coupling coordination and spatio temporal evolution characteristics of industrial deagriculturalization, population urbanization land deagriculturalization in the urbanization development of the Central Plains urban agglomeration, so as to provide reference and basis for the healthy development of the Central Plains urban agglomeration in Zhongyuan city group. Based on the data from 2006 to 2016, the coupling coordination degree model and ArcGis software were used to analyze the spatio temporal characteristics of the industry, population and land deagriculturalization in Zhongyuan city group and its development trend. Results were showed as follows. According to the time series characteristics, the coupling coordination degree between population urbanization, industrial deagriculturalization, and land deagriculturalization was generally decreasing in Zhongyuan city group, stable and rising. The coupling coordination degree of the whole district in 2006, 2011 and 2016 was 0.57, 0.53 and 0.55, respectively. And the overall coordination of them was in a moderate stage. From the perspective of spatial characteristics, the spatial pattern of the coupling and coordination of industry, population and land deagriculturalization in Zhongyuan city group had experienced a distribution pattern of "three points" from the ring to the "T" shape. In summary, the healthy development of urban agglomeration should strengthen the coordinated development of the city, enhance the leading role of demonstration; enhance the ability of independent development, narrow the regional development gap, so optimizing the industrial spatial pattern and promoting the comprehensive development of the city is the enlightenment of the coordinated development of urbanization in the future.