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Adjusting Choice Models to Better Predict Market Behavior |
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| Authors: | Greg Allenby Geraldine Fennell Joel Huber Thomas Eagle Tim Gilbride Dan Horsky Jaehwan Kim Peter Lenk Rich Johnson Elie Ofek Bryan Orme Thomas Otter Joan Walker |
| Institution: | (1) Ohio State University, Ohio;(2) Consultant, Dublin, Ireland;(3) Duke University, USA;(4) Eagle Analytics, USA;(5) Notre Dame University, USA;(6) University of Rochester, USA;(7) Korea University, Korea;(8) University of Michigan, Michigan;(9) Sawtooth Software, USA;(10) Harvard University, USA;(11) Sawtooth Software, USA;(12) Ohio State University, Ohio;(13) Boston University, Boston |
| Abstract: | The emergence of Bayesian methodology has facilitated respondent-level conjoint models, and deriving utilities from choice experiments has become very popular among those modeling product line decisions or new product introductions. This review begins with a paradox of why experimental choices should mirror market behavior despite clear differences in content, structure and motivation. It then addresses ways to design the choice tasks so that they are more likely to reflect market choices. Finally, it examines ways to model the results of the choice experiments to better mirror both underlying decision processes and potential market choices. Co-chairs. Author order is alphabetical. |
| Keywords: | Bayesian analysis extended model of behavior motivating conditions |
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