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Examination of Taiwan's travel and tourism market cycle through a two-period Markov regime-switching model |
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| Institution: | 1. Department of Tourism and Leisure Management, Yuanpei University of Medical Technology, HsinChu, Taiwan, ROC;2. Department of Applied Finance, Yuanpei University of Medical Technology, HsinChu, Taiwan, ROC;1. Universidad de Quintana Roo, Unidad Cancún. Department of Computing Science, Cancún, Quintana Roo, Mexico;2. CONACYT-Instituto Tecnológico Superior de Tierra Blanca, Av. Veracruz S/N Esq. Héroes de Puebla, Colonia Pemex. C.P, 95180, Tierra Blanca, Veracruz, Mexico;1. Oxford Brookes Business School, Department of Marketing, Oxford Brookes University, United Kingdom;2. International Centre for Research in Tourism, Hospitality and Events, Leeds Beckett University, United Kingdom;1. Beijing International Studies University, China;2. Towson University, USA;3. The George Washington University, USA |
| Abstract: | This study analyzes the Taiwan travel and tourism (T&T) market cycle. According to data of the weighted Taiwan tourism stock index from January 1997 to August 2015, the two-period Markov regime-switching model identifies two distinct regimes of the T&T cycle and incorporates a specific set of mean and variance parameters for each period to control for the structural changes in Taiwan's T&T market. The effect of China visitor arrivals to Taiwan on the T&T market is also verified. The empirical findings offer essential information and policy implications for Taiwan's government tourism policymakers and business managers. |
| Keywords: | Weighted tourism stock index Two-period Markov regime-switching model Business cycle |
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