Ex ante analysis of the benefits of transgenic drought tolerance research on cereal crops in low-income countries |
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| Authors: | Genti Kostandini Bradford F. Mills Steven Were Omamo Stanley Wood |
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| Affiliation: | Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, University of Georgia, 1109 Experiment Street, 221 Stuckey Building, Griffin, GA 30223-1797, USA;Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, 314 Hutcheson Hall, Blacksburg, VA 24060, USA;United Nations World Food Programme, Via C.G.Viola 68, Parco dei Medici, 00148 Rome, Italy;International Food Policy Research Institute, 2033 K Street, NW, Washington, DC 20006, USA |
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| Abstract: | This article develops a framework to examine the ex ante benefits of transgenic research on drought in eight low-income countries, including the benefits to producers and consumers from farm income stabilization and the potential magnitude of private sector profits from intellectual property rights (IPRs). The framework employs country-specific agroecological–drought risk zones and considers both yield increases and yield variance reductions when estimating producer and consumer benefits from research. Benefits from yield variance reductions are shown to be an important component of aggregate drought research benefits, representing 40% of total benefits across the eight countries. Further, estimated annual benefits of US$178 million to the private sector suggest that significant incentives exist for participation in transgenic drought tolerance research. |
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| Keywords: | O34 O47 Q16 |
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