人民币汇率严重低估了吗?

本文主要讨论了人民币均衡实际汇率以及汇率错位问题。在归纳测算均衡实际汇率的主流经济理论及方法之后,文章回顾了近期文献对人民币汇率偏离的实证结果,后运用3种检验手段对人民币汇率失调幅度进行测算与判断。研究表明,目前的均衡实际汇率测算方法各含缺陷,且人民币汇率在1996-2007年间未出现严重错位现象。根据目前国际收支失衡的局面,我们建议:大力发展服务业;扩大进口并优化进口格局;灵活运用汇率制度与价格政策相结合的机制,从而保障汇率更加平稳、趋于均衡。

Was Renminbi Significantly Undervalued?

This research focuses on the equilibrium real exchange rate(ERER)for the Chinese currency,RMB,and its corresponding misalignment.After reviewing the theoretical frameworks of the three widely-used ERER assessment methods,namely enhanced PPP approach,macroeconomic balance approach,and the Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate(BEER)approach,we further surveyed the recent empirical studies on the RMB ERER and misalignment assessment through the three approaches.Based on the enhanced PPP approach and the BEER approach,we conducted three empirical experiments through the cross-section estimation,the panel analysis and the vector error correction model.Our empirical results indicate the existence of the Balassa-Samuelson effect in China,and suggest that there is no strong evidence to argue that substantial currency misalignment for the RMB occurred from 1996 to 2007.Hence,to assure the RMB exchange rate maintaining steady and aligning to ERER,policy implications,i.e.to boost nontradable sector,develop import sector,and implement both flexible exchange rate regime and production factor price reform in parallel,are recommended.