新冠肺炎疫情后各国主权债务风险及其前景

新冠肺炎疫情及其经济冲击促使许多国家财政赤字率和政府债务率大幅升高,其影响程度超过了2008年国际金融危机。笔者既不赞成现代货币理论(MMT)的看法,也不认同悲观派的看法。从影响各国主权债务风险的几大因素看,一些新兴市场经济体尤其需要关注利率的3种风险溢价:通胀风险溢价、货币贬值风险溢价和信誉(违约风险)溢价。展望未来,发达经济体和新兴市场经济体将花费数年时间进行财政收支和政府债务调整,以渐进方式推进政府部门的去杠杆。

Sovereign Debt Risks and Their Prospects after the COVID-19 Epidemic

Covid-19 epidemic and its economic impact have led to a sharp increase in the fiscal deficit ratio and government debt ratio in many countries, which has a greater impact than the 2008 international financial crisis.This paper does not agree to the view of modern monetary theory(MMT), nor does it agree to the pessimistic view.In view of the major factors affecting sovereign debt risk, some emerging market economies in particular need to pay attention to three risk premiums of interest rates: inflation risk premium, currency depreciation risk premium and credit(default risk) premium. It will take several years of fiscal and government debt adjustment in advanced and emerging market economies to deleverage the government sector in a gradual manner.