市场信心如何影响中国经济——基于社会融资分解的视角

通过直接融资、间接融资、企业家信心、消费者信心等一系列指标构建向量自回归VAR模型,研究控制市场信心前后,直接融资和间接融资对货币政策传导的效应.研究结果表明:控制市场信心后,间接融资对货币政策最终目标的影响强于直接融资,未控制市场信心前,直接融资对货币政策最终目标的影响强于间接融资;市场信心增强了以社会融资为中介目标的货币政策的传导效率,且其对直接融资的影响强于间接融资.

How Does Market Confidence Affect China's Economy: Based on the perspective of social financing decomposition

Based on a series of indicators such as direct financing, indirect financing, entrepreneur confidence, consumer confidence and so on, a vector autoregressive model VAR model was constructed to study the effects of direct financing and indirect financing on monetary policy transmission before and after controlling market confidence. The results show that :After controlling the market confidence, indirect financing has stronger impact on the ultimate goal of monetary policy than direct financing. The influence of direct financing on the ultimate goal of monetary policy is stronger than that of indirect financing before controlling market confidence. Market confidence enhances the transmission efficiency of monetary policy with social financing as the intermediary target, and its influence on direct financing is stronger than that on indirect financing.