数字金融与地方政府债务风险——基于中国省级面板数据的分析

基于中国2011—2018年29个省份的面板数据,采用双向固定效应模型多维度剖析各省数字普惠金融的发展对地方政府债务风险水平的影响机制.结果显示:数字金融的发展对地方政府债务风险水平有着显著的正向影响;地方政府的经济治理能力在数字金融与地方债务风险之间存在反向的调节效应.表明数字金融发展为地方政府带来的融资便利并不能单纯地作为管控地方债务风险的武器,有效地提高地方政府经济治理能力,正确利用数字金融发展红利才是合理管控地方债务风险、保障区域经济持续健康发展的可行之策,这为应对数字时代下地方政府的债务治理问题、防范化解系统性金融风险提供了新的思考和启示.

Digital Finance and Local Government Debt Risk: Analysis based on China's provincial panel data

Based on the panel data of 29 provinces in China from 2011 to 2018, the two-way fixed effects model is used to analyze the influence mechanism of the development of digital financial inclusion in each province on the level of local government debt risk. The results show that the development of digital finance has a significant positive impact on the level of local government debt risk; the economic governance capacity of local governments has a reverse moderating effect between digital finance and local debt risk. The conclusion shows that the financing convenience brought by the development of digital finance to local governments cannot be simply used as a weapon to control local debt risks. It can effectively improve the economic governance capabilities of local governments. The correct use of digital financial development dividends is the rational management and control of local debt risks and guarantees. A feasible strategy for the sustained and healthy development of the regional economy provides new thinking and enlightenment for the debt governance of local governments in the digital age and for preventing and resolving systemic financial risks.