2006年石油价格展望

本文对影响2006年石油价格的因素做了系统分析。认为2006年形成油价风险的主要动因已从需求的波动转向供给的波动;2006年油价将由于供求的脆弱平衡维持高位运行的格局,并且,由于供给链中潜在的危机,油价波动性将会非常大;但在全球经济增速下降、石油需求增长放缓、石油生产国家和公司仍然在努力满足市场需求、炼油瓶颈有望缓和的大背景下,油价在2006年按2005年可比价格计不会大幅上升,不会对全球经济产生重大负面影响。

Oil Price Outlook in 2006

Based on a systematic analysis of the major factors affecting the oil prices in 2006, an argument is formed in this article that the dominant drive of oil price risk is shifted from demand to supply fluctuations. Due to the weak balance of oil demand and supply, the oil price will fluctuate at a relatively high level, and its volatility will be high in 2006, taking into consideration of the underlying crisis in supply side. However, calculated in 2005 constant dollars, oil price in 2006 will not climb up remarkably and its negative effect to global economy will be limited, mainly resulted from factors as the slowing down of global economic growth, the sluggish oil demand, the efforts oil producing countries and oil companies made in keeping supply stable, and the expected alleviation of refining bottleneck.