港元联系汇率制度可持续性研究

随着世界经济环境的变化,中国经济逐渐崛起,美国经济开始趋弱,欧盟经济逐渐提升;美元贬值、人民币升值压力加大,香港的联系汇率制度面临着新的挑战和冲击。本文就是在此背景下,通过定性分析和计量(Johansen协整检验)实证研究,得出香港联系汇率制度需要改革,港元最终与人民币统一的前期,钉住包括美元、欧元、人民币等一篮子货币是一个很好的选择,香港现在正处于改革汇率制度的良好时机。

Sustainability of Currency Board in Hong Kong

The environment of world economy is changing all the time.The economy of china is growing up very quickly,but the United States is going downward,the economy of EU is growing up in a steady.The pressures of RMB to appreciate and US dollars to depreciate are become stronger.The currency board in Hong Kong is having several big challenges.This article gets the conclusion that the reform of currency board is in urgency.Before the unification of RMB and Hong Kong dollar,Hong Kong dollar pegging to a basket band is a good choice which consists of US dollars,Euro,RMB and so on.