| Abstract: | The use of Taiwanese industrial data to investigate two potentially important roles of human capital on long-run economic growth (i.e. factor accumulation and technology progress), we find that human capital accounts for 46% of output growth in aggregate manufacturing industry and from 23 to 84% in two-digit industries. Significant knowledge spillover effects were found within Taiwan's manufacturing sector. For aggregate manufacturing, a roughly 29% of total rate of return to education gives a private return of 7% while the external knowledge spillover effect is 22%. For the two-digit industries, the inter-industry effect of education measures two to three times its intra-industry effect. Contrary to the Lau-Young proposition, we find that technology change in terms of knowledge spillover contributes 39% to the output growth of Taiwan's aggregate manufacturing and from 12 to 42% to that of the two-digit industries. Our results also suggest that, in the presence of externalities, growth accounting based on macro data may be misleading in interpreting the sources of growth.
In addition, the case study of Taiwan suggests that opening trade broadens opportunities, and hence increases the return on human-capital investment. However, our estimation results also suggest that in terms of capturing the growth benefits from trade, threshold levels of human capital exist in most industries. |
