我国的主权信用评级被低估了吗

本文以1996—2011年间45个国家的宏观经济数据和惠誉的主权信用评级数据,运用一般面板线性回归和有序概率模型研究了我国的主权信用评级是否被低估的问题。结果发现,国际评级机构并没有刻意低估我国的主权信用评级,其对我国主权信用评级的测算方法并不明显有别于其他国家。但是,由于评级体系的倾向性和我国地方政府债务不透明等原因,导致我国的主权信用评级客观上存在被低估的可能。

Is China's Sovereign Debt Rating Underrated

This paper uses the macro-economic data and Fitch sovereign credit ratings data and adopts general pan- el linear regression and orderly probability model to study whether China＇ s sovereign credit rating has been underrated. The result shows that international rating agency hasn＇ t intentionally underrated China＇ s sovereign credit rating, and there is no obvious difference between its calculation method on China and that on other countries. However, due to causes such as inclination of rating agency and opacity of China＇ s local government debt, there is possibility that the sovereign debt rating of China might be objectively underrated.