全球价值链贸易对区域贸易协定发展的影响研究

国际贸易自20世纪90年代以来呈现出两大重要特征,即全球价值链(GVC)分工细化和区域贸易协定日益深化。文章使用1995~2015年的联合国贸发会议Eora26投入产出数据匹配CEPII引力数据和世界银行的贸易协定深度数据,实证研究了双边GVC贸易强度对RTA发展的影响机制。研究发现,GVC贸易强度增加会显著提高RTA签订概率和深度,在处理了潜在内生性和更换实证模型等方法后结论依然十分稳健。由于南北方国家存在较大的机制性差异,在北-北贸易模式下GVC贸易强度对RTA深化发展的影响作用更大,尤其是RTA关键条款。考虑到条款的法律可执行性,仅在北-北模式中GVC贸易会对RTA关键条款深度起到显著促进作用,在南-南模式中这一机制仅局限在边境关税类条款中,而在南-北模式下的贸易强度增加反而会降低RTA深度。文章的实证结论为当前中国签订RTA提供了很好的思路和经验证据。

Research on the Impact of Global Value Chain Trade on the Development of Regional Trade Agreements

Since 1990s,international trade has exhibited two important characteristics: The division of global value chains( GVC) and the deepening of regional trade agreement( RTA). Using UNCTAD EORA26 input-output data from 1995 to 2015 to match CEPII gravity data and World Bank trade agreement depth data,this paper empirically studies the mechanism of bilateral GVC trade intensity on RTA development. It is found that increase in GVC trade intensity would significantly raise the probability of signing RTA and deepen the content of RTA,and it remains robust after dealing with potential endogeneity and changing empirical models. Furthermore,northern and southern countries have great differences regarding mechanism. Under the north-north trade pattern,the GVC trade intensity exerts greater influence on RTA’s further development,especially on the key terms of RTA. Considering the legal enforceability of the provisions,only in north-north pattern would GVC trade significantly contribute to the depth of the RTA key provisions,and in south-south model this mechanism is limited to border tariff provisions only. In north-south mode,however,the increase of trade intensity would undermine the deepening of RTA. The conclusion of this paper provides a good reference and empirical evidence for China’s signing RTA with other countries at current stage.