中国财政政策动态效应的实证分析:1998~2004

本文对中国1998~2004年间实行的积极性财政政策的动态效应进行了实证研究。基于对数据性质的考察,我们选用了结构性VECM模型来研究。在结构性模型中,我们引入了长期约束和短期约束来识别宏观经济变量中的冲击向量,并利用脉冲响应函数和方差分解的方法,对冲击向量的动态效应进行实证研究。模型的实证结果表明,财政支出冲击对总产出具有正向效应而税收收入冲击则具有负向效应,且支出冲击的正效应略大于税收收入的负效应。该结论印证了凯恩斯主义关于财政政策的主要结论。同时实证结果对我国1998年以来的积极财政政策的效果给予了支持:增加财政支出的效应很大程度上被同期税收收入的增长所抵消,财政政策对产出的贡献并不像预期的那么显著。

Empirical Research on Dynamic Effects of Fiscal Policy in China: 1998-2004

This paper makes some research on the dynamic effects of expansionary fiscal policy between 1998 and 2004 in China. Based on the nature of the data, we choose structural VECM model in our estimation. Here, both long run and short run restrictions are used to identify the fiscal shocks and then impulse response function and variance decomposition are used to describe the effects. Results show that government spending shocks have positive effects on output, while tax revenues have negative effects, which supports the traditional Keynesian effects. Also, the results give support to the effects of the expansionary fiscal policy since 1998: the effects are not as significant as expected, as the effects from government spending are partly counteracted by tax revenue.