我国碳排放的区域差异及驱动因素分析——基于脱钩和三层完全分解模型的实证研究

文章通过计算1995-2009年我国29个省市的碳排放量,揭示了我国碳排放的区域差异特征,并进一步构建"LMDI三层完全分解模型",研究了各地区碳排放增长的9类驱动因素,其中人均GDP是促进碳排放增长的决定因素,产业部门的能源强度下降是抑制碳排放增长的主要因素。文章根据这9类因素对各地区碳排放增长的影响方向和影响程度及其导致区域碳排放的异质性特征,提出了我国差异化区域碳减排政策。

Regional Differences and Driving Factors of Carbon Emissions in China: Empirical Analysis Based on the Decoupling and LMDI Models

By calculating the carbon emissions in 29 provinces from 1995 to 2009,this paper reveals the regional differences of carbon emissions in China.Then it constructs a LMDI model to study nine driving factors of the increase in carbon emissions in eastern,central and western regions;it shows that GDP per capita is the determinant of the increase in carbon emissions and the reduction in the energy intensity of industrial sectors has the most significantly negative effect on the increase in carbon emissions.Finally,on the basis of the analysis of the effects of these nine driving factors on the increase in regional carbon emissions and the heterogeneity of regional carbon emissions,it proposes some differential policies concerning the decrease in regional carbon emissions.