1995-2006年我国人口抚养比时空分析

人口抚养比是衡量人口年龄结构变化对社会经济发展影响的重要统计指标。在我国随着儿童死亡率的不断下降和人口老龄化的不断加剧,人口抚养比呈现出两方面不同的变化趋势。其中少年儿童抚养比随着经济的发展呈现不断下降,老年人口抚养比则随着老年人口的增多呈现缓慢上升的反向动态变化趋势。本文将人口抚养比融入时间坐标和空间结构中进行分析,从我国近十二年来人口抚养比变化的经验数据得出我国目前仍然处于"人口机会窗口"时期,同时指出这种情况对我国经济的影响因素,以及解决这些问题的原则和方法,这对我们充分利用这个有利环境,制定和实施行之有效的经济政策,将潜在的机遇转换为现实的经济增长具有十分重要的现实意义。

Chinese Population Dependency Ratio Dynamic Analysis of Space-time(1995-2006)

Dependency Ratio of Population is an important statistical indicator which measures population age structure variety to the development influence of the social economy.In our country,with the steady decline in children mortality rates and the aging of the population growing,the dependency ratio of population shows a change in two different trends.The children dependency ratio along with the economic development shows a continuous decline,while,in the other hand,the elderly dependency ratio shows a slowly increase because of the increase of old people.In this paper,the population dependency ratio will be integrated into the structure of time and space coordinates in the analysis,showing over the past 12 years changes in the population dependency ratio data from the experience of our country is still in the "population opportunity window",which indicates that the situation is the impact of factor on China's economy.