基于LMDI模型的广西水足迹驱动力分析

运用水足迹理论对广西2004—2014年水足迹账户进行核算,评估广西的水资源利用情况并结合LMDI模型计算驱动力的贡献度,对各驱动力的影响情况进行分析。结果表明:广西的水足迹总量呈现逐年上升的趋势,农业生产水足迹占比较大;广西的用水效率逐年提高,水资源利用呈现出可持续发展的状态;在分解出的驱动力中,人口效应为正向驱动力,人口增加对水足迹变化的影响较小;经济效应为正向驱动力,经济增长对水足迹变化的影响最大;效率效应为逆向驱动力,贡献度仅次于经济效应,用水效率提高会使水足迹减少。

Driving Force Analysis of Water Footprint in Guangxi Based on the LMDI Method

By using the water footprint theory to calculate the water footprint account of Guangxi during 2004-2014,the paper evaluates the water resources utilization,calculates the contribution of each driving force based on the LMDI model,and analyzes the effect of each driving force.The results show that:(1) The water footprint of Guangxi is increasing year by year of which agricultural water footprint accounts a large proportion.(2)The efficiency of water using of Guangxi increases year by year and in the utilization of water resources sustains to grow.(3) When decomposing the driving forces,population is a positive driving force.Population increase plays an insignificant role in changing water footprint;Economy is a positive driving force,making the biggest contribution;The efficiency effect is the reverse driving force which is only next to the economy with regard to its contribution.Therefore,by improving the efficiency of water use,water footprint will decrease accordingly.