中国贸易结构对贸易流量的影响分析

在介绍中国的贸易结构的基础上,利用扩展的引力模型分析了2004—2008年中国与40个主要贸易伙伴之间贸易结构与贸易流量的关系,并考察了中国贸易流量的决定因素。实证研究的结果表明：扩展的引力模型可以有效地解释中国的双边贸易流量,中国的贸易结构变量估计系数为负,说明中国的贸易结构与贸易流量反相关,中国的贸易结构限制了中国贸易流量的扩大,也意味着是规模收益递增模型而非要素禀赋模型更适用于解释当前中国的贸易模式。

Impact of China＇s Trade Structure on Trade Flow

On the basis of introduction to China＇s trade structure,this paper studies the relation between China＇s bilateral trade flow and trade structure with 40 important trade partners in a framework of the gravity model over the period 2004-2008,and explores the decisive factors of China＇s trade flow.The empirical results show that the extended gravity model can explain China＇s bilateral trade flow effectively and the estimated variable coefficient of China＇s trade structure is negative,which means that China＇s trade structure and trade flow is negatively correlated,or China＇s trade structure restricts the expansion of trade flow,and the model of monopolistic competition and increasing return to scale,rather than the model of factors,is more applicable to the explanation for China＇s trade mode.