中国东部地区装备制造业全要素生产率水平及时空演进趋势预测

基于东部地区装备制造业上市企业的财务数据,以2010—2020年为研究时段,采用LP法与Kernel密度估计法测算其全要素生产率（TFP）及演进特征,使用传统Markov链法和空间Markov链法,从时间和空间两个维度预测该地区的TFP演进趋势。研究表明：东部地区装备制造业TFP水平及集聚程度在上升,差异程度和极化趋势有所下降;TFP水平存在“俱乐部趋同”现象,并呈现由低水平向高水平转移的发展趋势,在地理空间因素影响下,TFP水平存在显著的“马太效应”。

TFP Level and Spatial-temporal Evolution Trend Forecast of Equipment Manufacturing Industry in Eastern China

Based on the financial data of listed equipment manufacturing companies in eastern China, LP method and Kernel density estimation method are used to measure the TFP level and evolution characteristics during 2010-2020. Traditional Markov chain method and spatial Markov chain method are used to predict the evolution trend of TFP from the dimension of time and space. The results show that the TFP level and concentration degree of equipment manufacturing industry in eastern China have been increasing, while the difference degree and polarization trend have been decreasing. There is a phenomenon of "club convergence" in TFP level, and it shows a trend of transition from low level to high level. Under the influence of geographical and spatial factors, there is a significant "Matthew effect" in TFP level.