论产业转移对人民币汇率的影响及我国贸易结构的调整--兼论我国中性贸易战略

本文建立了产业转移影响实际汇率变动的理论模型,并检验了20世纪60年代以来日本的实际汇率、80年代以来人民币实际汇率的变动及我国贸易特化系数,认为巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应所认为的贸易品劳动生产率降低带来的实际汇率上升在中国是存在的.针对我国加工贸易比重过大的现实,本文提出应当在及时调整我国贸易结构的基础上合理重估人民币汇率.

Industry Transfer's Influence on RMB Exchange Rate and China' s Trade Structure Adjustment

We have set up in this paper a theoretical model of industry transfer' s influence on real exchange rate. We have checked up the real exchange rate of Japanese Yen from the 1960s to 2004. We have also checked up the real exchange rate of RMB and China's TSC index from the 1980s to 2004. The conclusion is that Balassa-Samuelson effect is actually in effect in China. China' s processing trade is almost half in proportion to total trade volume these years. We suggest at last that China should adjust the trade structure in time before estimating RMB exchange rate anew.