Global Warming and German Agriculture Impact Estimations Using a Restricted Profit Function

This study uses the concept of shadow prices formeasuring the impacts of climate change. By estimatinga restricted profit function rather than a cost or aproduction function the explanatory power of the modelis increased because of an endogenous outputstructure. Using low aggregated panel data on WesternGerman farmers, the results imply that the agricultural production process is significantly influenced by climate conditions. Simulation results using a 2 ×CO₂ climate scenario show positive impactsfor all regions in Germany. Interestingly, the spatialdistribution of the gains is indicating no advantagefor those regions, which currently suffer frominsufficient temperature. Finally, the importance ofan endogenous output structure is confirmed by thefinding that the desired product mix will drasticallychange.