评估中国对外投资风险*——通过投资者—国家争端解决案件的角度

近年来，中国对外投资规模大幅增加，海外投资风险也随之加大，对风险的评估和预防日益重要。国际投资协定及其框架下的投资者—国家争端解决机制（ISDS）已经逐渐成为保护投资者海外资产的主要工具之一。本文通过回顾ISDS的发展历程和特点, 并且利用ISDS仲裁案件数据库，研究了影响ISDS案件发生的因素。本文发现，中国目前对外直接投资分布于ISDS案件高发的行业和地区，面临的海外投资风险较大。回归分析表明，东道国经济发展水平越低、人均国民收入越低以及政治环境越差，就越容易发生ISDS案件。

EVALUATION CHINESE OVERSEA INVESTMENT RISK—— Based on Investor State Dispute Settlement Cases

In recent years, Chinas outward FDI and its related risk have significantly increased. It makes the evaluation and precaution of the outward FDI risk important. The ISDS mechanism under international investment agreements framework has gradually become one of the main tools to protect investors outward FDI. This paper reviews the development history and characteristics of ISDS mechanism and analyzes the determinants of the ISDS cases by using the ISDS data base. We find that Chinas outward FDI concentrate in the industries and areas where there are many ISDS cases, which imply that there is huge risk in the investment. The regression results show that the ISDS case are more likely to occur in those host countries with lower economics development level, lower GDP per capita and worse political environment.