内外经济政策不确定对中国出口贸易及其发展边际的影响*

本文分析了国内和国外政策不确定对中国出口贸易及其分解的影响，探究了它们的作用差异、具体特点及影响渠道。本文研究发现，国内和国外政策的不确定均显著阻碍了中国出口贸易及其广义边际、集约边际的发展，且前者作用格外突出。同时，控制了经济运行周期、经济危机的影响后，本文的基本结论仍比较稳健。此外，扩展研究发现政策不确定对中国出口的作用还依赖出口市场特点、行业要素密集度和出口沉没成本等因素。最后，本文还利用微观数据进行了简单的机制验证。

DOMESTIC POLICY UNCERTAINTY,FOREIGN POLICY UNCERTAINTY AND CHINESE EXPORT#br#

This paper studies the impacts of domestic and foreign policy uncertainty on Chinese export, its margins and their differences The basic findings show both domestic and foreign policy uncertainty significantly decrease Chinese export value and its extensive margin and intensive margin The robustness tests prove the basic results are very reliable The extended researches also find the basic findings also depend on other factors, such as the characteristics of the export markets, the factor intensity of industries and export sunk costs Finally, this paper also carries out a simple mechanism test with micro firm data