房价影响因素的空间非一致性与差异化调控手段——基于Panel Data模型的实证研究

房地产价格受多种宏观经济因素的综合影响,不同城市的房价决定因素可能存在差异。文章将全国城市划分为四种级别,并选择17个一、二、三线样本城市,以货币供应量、CPI、GDP、城镇居民家庭人均可支配收入和社会固定资产投资额为解释变量,选取2002-2012年的季度数据,构建Panel Data模型,研究房价影响因素的空间非一致性,研究结果证明了空间非一致性的存在。基于此,对一、二、三线城市分别提出了差异性调控手段建议。

Spatial Nonuniformity of Factors Influencing Housing Prices and Different Macro-control Policies --An Empirical Research Based on Panel Data Model

The real estate price is comprehensively affected by many kinds of macro economic factors, and the housing prices in different cities may be influenced by different factors. The paper classifies the cities nationwide into four levels, and selects 17 cities at the first, second and third level among them respectively as the samples. Choosing M2, CPI, GDP, Per capita disposable income of urban househohts and social fixed assets investment as explanatory variables, based on the quarterly data during the year of 2002 to 2012, it builds a Panel Data model to make a research on the spatial nonuniformity of factors influencing housing prices. The empirical results prove that the spatial nonuniformity does exist. Based on the study, this paper puts forward different macro-control policies to cities at the different levels.