Die Amplitude der österreichischen Konjunkturschwankungen im internationalen Vergleich

Summary Business cycles are considered to be milder in Austria than in other countries. This article tries to test if this view is correct. If it is correct it will investigate what are the factors dampening the amplitude of Austrian business cycles.It comes out in fact, that the fluctuations of global demand are considerably weaker in Austria than in almost all other industrialized countries. The amplitude of fluctuations of employment and prices is weaker as well but not that much so. Little evidence is found that Austria's better cyclical performance is due to superior discretionary policies. Rather the attempts to stabilize income and expectations in the long run may have contributed. Especially wages and disposable income stabilized private consumption, the evidence for a reduction of the amplitude of investment fluctuations via stabilizing entrepreneurs' expectations is much weaker. Strong evidence could be found that the fluctuations of the several components of demand compensate each other to a larger extent in Austria than elsewhere. The causes of the larger offset are not clear yet.An interesting sideproduct of this investigation is that the amplitudes of fluctuations and their patterns differ considerably from country to country. Policy can shape these patterns even if it is long-run policy and institutions rather than discretionary acts of fiscal and monetary policy. Especially price and quantity fluctuations are not alternatives. Good policy can dampen both at the same time.

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Der Autor dankt Univ.-Prof. Dr. Hans Seidel, Univ.-Doz. Dr. Karl Aiginger und den anonymen Gutachtern für wertvolle Anregungen und Verbesserungsvorschläge.